NEW POLLING SHOWS KEY CENTRAL VALLEY CONGRESSIONAL RACES ARE ONLY A “TOSS-UP” WITHOUT INVESTMENT
Congressional Districts 13, 21, and 22, present opportunities to turn historically red districts blue
Courage California partnered with Data for Social Good, Communities for a New California, Inland Empire United, and OC Action to conduct polls of over 3,400 registered voters in six key battleground congressional districts: 13, 21, 22, 27, 41, and 45.
Below are findings from the Congressional Districts located in California’s Central Valley, including CD13 (Kern and Kings Counties), CD21 (Fresno and Tulare Counties), and CD22 (Tulare and Kern Counties).
The majority of voters in these districts are planning to vote in the general election but are not paying attention to the election.
Among voters in CD13, only 19.1% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 31.9% are a moderate amount, and 49% a little or not at all. At present, 90% of CD13 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 10% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A majority of CD13 voters plan on voting by mail (59.8%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (22.4%) or voting early in person (6.9%), and 10.8% have not decided how they will vote.
Among voters in CD21, only 19.3% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 31.% are a moderate amount, and 49.6% a little or not at all. At present, 89.4% of CD21 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 10.6% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A majority of CD21 voters plan on voting by mail (62.6%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (21.9%) or voting early in person (6.8%), and 8.7% have not decided how they will vote.
Among voters in CD22, 21.8% are paying a great deal or a lot of attention to the election, 38.2% are a moderate amount, and 39.9% a little or not at all. At present, 86.6% of CD22 voters are planning on voting in the November 8 general election, 13.4% are unsure or probably won’t vote. A majority of CD22 voters plan on voting by mail (58.2%) over voting at the polls on Election Day (24.7%) or voting early in person (8.1%), and 8.9% have not decided how they will vote.
Voters in these districts are nearly split between congressional candidates and undecided.
CD13 voters are largely undecided (40%) about who they will vote for in the U.S. House of Representatives race, 32.9% support John Duarte (R), and 27.1% support Adam Gray (D). Latino voters in CD13 are largely undecided (47.6%, +21.8% in comparison to white voters). White voters are largely supportive of Duarte (46.9%, +20.7% in comparison to latino voters), and Gray’s support is split between white (27.2%) and latino (26.2%) voters. Women voters in CD13 are more undecided than men (43.6%, +8% in comparison). Men are largely supportive of Duarte (39.3%, +11.7% in comparison), and Gray’s support is split between women (28.8%) and men (25.2%) voters. Undecided voters in CD13 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (65.1%).
Voters in CD21 support Jim Costa (D) (38.6%), with 27.4% in support of Michael Maher (R), for U.S. House of Representatives, 34% are undecided. Latino voters in CD21 are more undecided (40.1%, +17.9% in comparison to white voters), but largely support Costa (41.4%). White voters largely support Maher (41.2%, +22.7% in comparison to latino voters) and are least likely to be undecided (22.2%). Women voters in CD21 are more undecided than men (41.7%, +19.1% in comparison). Men are largely supportive of Maher (37.8%, +18.2% in comparison), and Costa’s support is split between men (39.6%) and women (38.7%) voters. Undecided voters in CD21 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (61.7%).
CD22 voters are undecided (38.2%) about who they will vote for in the U.S. House of Representatives race, 31.7% support Rudy Salas (D), and 30.1% support David Valadao (R). Latino voters in CD22 are largely undecided (43.9%, +18.4% in comparison to white voters). White voters are largely supportive of Valadao (42.3%, +18.6% in comparison to latino voters), while support for Salas is equally split. Women voters in CD22 are more undecided than men (45.5%, +15% in comparison). Men are largely supportive of Valadao (37.2%, +13.3% in comparison), and Salas’s support is split between men (32.2%) and women (30.6%) voters. Undecided voters in CD22 are likely to vote for a candidate based on the issues they represent (54.2%), with 34% based on their track record.
Jobs and the economy and public safety are amongst the top three issue for voters in these districts when considering which candidate to support in congressional races.
The top issues that CD13 voters care about are jobs and the economy (35.3%), housing costs (14%), and public safety (13.9%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 73.7% did because of inflation. Of those who chose housing costs, 47% did so due to lack of affordable housing. Of those who chose public safety, 52.1% did so because of a belief that crime has increased.
The top issues that CD21 voters care about are jobs and the economy (28.4%), public safety (19.8%), and healthcare (13.1%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 74.1% did because of inflation. Of the voters who chose public safety, 52.1% did so because of a belief that crime has increased. Of those who chose healthcare, 66.9% did because they believe healthcare is a human right.
The top issues that CD22 voters care about are jobs and the economy (34.3%), public safety (19.9%), and healthcare (12.7%). Of those who chose jobs and the economy, 71.7% did because of inflation. Of the voters who chose public safety, 55.1% did so because of a belief that crime has increased. Of those who chose healthcare, 55.2% did because they believe healthcare is a human right.
The overwhelming majority of voters in these districts will vote Yes on Prop 1 – but undecided voters in these districts will likely decide the fate of Prop 30.
CD13 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (57.4%), with some opposition (25.9%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 16.7% are undecided. However, voters in CD13 are split on Prop 30 (43.2% support, 42.1% do not support), with only 14.7% uncertain on how they will vote on the proposition.
CD21 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (63%), with some opposition (23.3%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 13.7% are undecided. However, voters in CD21 are split on Prop 30 (45.5% support, 42.6% do not support), with a significant number of voters uncertain (20.8%) on how they will vote on the proposition.
CD22 voters support Yes on Prop 1 (58.5%), with some opposition (28.6%) to the statewide ballot measure, and only 12.9% are undecided. However, voters in CD22 are split on Prop 30 (44.3% support, 42.5% do not support), with only 13.2% uncertain on how they will vote on the proposition.
Community organizations and leaders are seen as the voices voters in these districts will listen to most when thinking about who to vote for.
CD13 voters see community organizations (31.2%) as the most influential when thinking about who to vote for, followed by community leaders (26.8%). There was less trust in business people (21.6%), elected officials (16.3%), and celebrities and influencers (0.7%).
CD21 voters see community leaders (33.6%) as the voices they are most likely to listen to when thinking about who to vote for, followed by community organizations (29.3%). There was less trust in business people (17.8%), elected officials (15.4%), and celebrities and influencers (4%).
CD22 voters see community leaders (35.8%) as the voices they are most likely to listen to when thinking about who to vote for, followed by community organizations (26.9%). There was less trust in business people (19.9%), elected officials (13.4%), and celebrities and influencers (3.9%).
The majority of voters in these districts trust their own online research for information.
Voters in CD13 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (63.4%). Print/radio/TV/podcast (14.9%), social media (14.2%), and parents and family (7.5%) were considered much less trustworthy.
Voters in CD21 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (55.3%). Print/radio/TV/podcast (22.5%), social media (14.8%), and parents and family (7.5%) were considered much less trustworthy.
Voters in CD22 rank online research as the most trustworthy source for information (58.9%). Print/radio/TV/podcast (19.5%), social media (13%), and parents and family (8.7%) were considered much less trustworthy.
The voters in these districts lean conservative, but a significant number identify themselves as No Party Preference or Independent.
Voters in CD13 lean conservative (38.4% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 26.2% as moderate, 19.9% as very or somewhat liberal) 33.7% identify themselves as registered Republicans, 31.9% as registered Democrats, and 29.4% as No Party Preference or Independent. Of the CD13 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 36.3% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party, and 27% believe the parties only want to get their candidate elected. NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when parties work together (23.4%) or when there are better candidates from the parties (20.7%).
Voters in CD21 consider themselves moderate (28.8% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 28.2% as moderate, 29.3% as very or somewhat liberal) 38.8% identify themselves as registered Democrats, 33.5% as No Party Preference or Independent, and 24% as registered Republican. Of the CD21 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 49.2% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party. NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when corporations and the wealthy have equal weight with “regular” people or when parties work together (22.3%), but 20.3% would never consider joining a party.
While voters in CD22 lean conservative (36.8% identify as very or somewhat conservative, 26.3% as moderate, 20% as very or somewhat liberal) 34.8% identify themselves as No Party Preference or Independent, 32.1% as registered Democrats, and 29.3% as registered Republicans. Of the CD22 voters who identify as NPP or Independent, 28.6% believe that corporations and the wealthy have too much influence in the party, and 25.5% believe the parties only want to get their candidate elected. A majority of NPP or Independent voters would consider joining a party again when parties work together (31%).
About this poll
Data for Social Good conducted the poll for Courage California, Communities for a New California, IE United, and OC Action from September 1-22, 2022. The poll was administered online in English, Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Tagalog, and Vietnamese. We polled 3,432 registered voters, intentionally oversampling from demographic communities that have seen higher rates of growth in the last decade, including voters of color.